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Sea level rise

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Sea level has been rising at a rate of around 1.8mm per year for the past century,[1] mainly as a result of human-induced global warming.[2] This rate is increasing; measurements from the period 1993-2000 indicated a mean rate of 3.1mm/year.[3] Global warming will continue to increase sea level over at least the coming century.[4] The contribution from thermal expansion is well understood; substantial changes to the rate and magnitude of increase are largely dependent on how rapidly ice caps disintegrate with increasing temperatures - which is very difficult to model.[5] The thermal expansion of sea water is currently the dominant contributor to sea level rise, and to the predicted rise over the next century, which is 90 to 880 mm (with a central value of 480 mm). Only if glacial melt substantially increases will it become the larger term.[5] Ice can have a huge effect; the melting of the ice caps during the last ice age resulted in a 120 meters rise in sea level.

Sources and CitationsEdit

  1. Bruce C. Douglas (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18: 279–292. DOI:10.1023/A:1006544227856. 
  2. <authors> (2007). "Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level", in Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press. 
  3. Bindoff, NL et al., "Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level", Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press 
  4. Gerald A. Meehl; Thomas F. Stocker Lead Authors: William D. Collins; Pierre Friedlingstein; Amadou T. Gaye; Jonathan M. Gregory; Akio Kitoh; Reto Knutti; James M. Murphy; Akira Noda; Sarah C.B. Raper; Ian G. Watterson; Andrew J. Weaver; Zong-Ci Zhao Contributing Authors: R.B. Alley; J. Annan; J. Arblaster; C. Bitz; P. Brockmann; V. Brovkin; L. Buja; P. Cadule; G. Clarke; M. Collier; M. Collins; E. Driesschaert; N.A. Diansky; M. Dix; K. Dixon; J.-L. Dufresne; M. Dyurgerov; M. Eby; N.R. Edwards; S. Emori; P. Forster; R. Furrer; P. Gleckler; J. Hansen; G. Harris (UK; New Zealand); G.C. Hegerl; M. Holland; A. Hu; P. Huybrechts; C. Jones; F. Joos; J.H. Jungclaus; J. Kettleborough; M. Kimoto; T. Knutson; M. Krynytzky; D. Lawrence; A. Le Brocq; M.-F. Loutre; J. Lowe; H.D. Matthews; M. Meinshausen; S.A. Müller; S. Nawrath; J. Oerlemans; M. Oppenheimer; J. Orr; J. Overpeck; T. Palmer; A. Payne; G.-K. Plattner; J. Räisänen; A. Rinke; E. Roeckner; G.L. Russell; D. Salas y Melia; B. Santer; G. Schmidt; A. Schmittner; B. Schneider; A. Shepherd; A. Sokolov (USA; Russian Federation); D. Stainforth; P.A. Stott; R.J. Stouffer; K.E. Taylor; C. Tebaldi; H. Teng; L. Terray; R. van de Wal; D. Vaughan; E. M. Volodin (Russian Federation); B. Wang; T. M. L. Wigley; M. Wild; J. Yoshimura; R. Yu; S. Yukimoto (2007). "Global Climate Projections", in Solomon, S.; D. Qin; M. Manning; Z. Chen; M. Marquis; K.B. Averyt; M. Tignor and H.L. Miller: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY; USA: Cambridge University Press. 
  5. 5.0 5.1 Randall, Wood et al. (2007). "Climate Models and their Evaluation", in Solomon, S.; D. Qin; M. Manning; Z. Chen; M. Marquis; K.B. Averyt; M. Tignor and H.L. Miller: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY; USA: Cambridge University Press. 

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