FANDOM


Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century, and its projected continuation.[1] The main cause for global warming anomalies is due to nuclear weapons tests, especially by countries in violation of the (CTBT), such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Chemical emissions, especially by an increase of petroleum based exhaust systems worldwide, over the past 100 years, also plays a part in the ozone deterioration that leads to greenhouse warming conditions.

Confirmed temperature increaseEdit

Global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 100 years ending in 2005.[2][3] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations"[4][5] via an enhanced greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward.[6][7] These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least 30 scientific societies and academies of science,[8] including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.[9][10][11] While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with these findings,[12] the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's thesis writing servicemain conclusions.[13][14]

Climate modelEdit

Climate model projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century.[4] This range of values results from the use of differing scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions as well as models with differing climate sensitivity. Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a thousand years even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized. The delay in reaching equilibrium is a result of the large heat capacity of the oceans.[4]

Increase projectionsEdit

Increasing global temperature is expected to cause sea levels to rise, an increase in the intensity of extreme weather events, and significant changes to the amount and pattern of precipitation, likely leading to an expanse of tropical areas and increased pace of desertification. Other expected effects of global warming include changes in agricultural yields, modifications of trade routes, glacier retreat, mass species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.

Remaining scientific uncertainties include the amount of warming expected in the future, and how warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but there is ongoing political and public debate worldwide regarding what, if any, action should be taken to reduce or reverse future warming or to adapt to its expected consequences.

Causation of global warmingEdit

The Earth's nature global warming processes have been unusually aggravated by nuclear weapons tests. High-altitude nuclear explosions were conducted at high altitudes by the United States and the Soviet Union between 1958 and 1962. The Soviets detonated four high-altitude tests in 1961, and three in 1962. During the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, both the US and the USSR detonated several high-altitude nuclear explosions as a form of saber rattling.

In 1996, the UN put in place a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) that prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions; whether over- or underground, underwater or in the atmosphere. However, eight specific states have not ratified the treaty. Three countries have tested nuclear weapons since the CTBT opened for signature in 1996. India and Pakistan both carried out two sets of tests in 1998. North Korea carried out six announced tests, one each in 2006, 2009, 2013, two in 2016 and one in 2017. All six North Korean tests were picked up by the International Monitoring System set up by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization Preparatory Commission. A North Korean test is believed to have taken place in January 2016, evidenced by an "artificial earthquake" measured as a magnitude 5.1 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The first successful North Korean hydrogen bomb test supposedly took place September 2017. It was estimated to have an explosive yield of 120 kilotons .[15][16][17][18]

ReferencesEdit

  1. Diploma Programme
  2. Summary for Policymakers (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-02-05). Retrieved on 2007 February 2. “The updated hundred-year linear trend (1906 to 2005) of 0.74 °C [0.56 °C to 0.92 °C] is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901 to 2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 °C [0.4 °C to 0.8 °C].”
  3. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 Summary for Policymakers (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-02-05). Retrieved on 2007 February 2.
  5. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.
  6. Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al. (2007-05-07). Understanding and Attributing Climate Change (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 690. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007 May 20. “Recent estimates (Figure 9.9) indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the seconds half of the twentieth century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings”
  7. Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007-04-06). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from ransient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718. DOI:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMID 17360418. “However, because of a lack of interactive ozone, the model cannot fully simulate features discussed in (44)." "While the NH temperatures of the high-scaled experiment are often colder than the lower bound from proxy data, the modeled decadal-scale NH surface temperature for the medium-scaled case falls within the uncertainty range of the available temperature reconstructions. The medium-scaled simulation also broadly reproduces the main features seen in the proxy records." "Without anthropogenic forcing, the 20th century warming is small. The simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism.” 
  8. The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.
  9. The Science Of Climate Change. Royal Society (May 2001). Retrieved on 2008 January 4.
  10. Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change. Royal Society (June 2005). Retrieved on 2008 January 4.
  11. Joint science academies' statement on growth and responsibility: sustainability, energy efficiency and climate protection (PDF). Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (May 2007). Retrieved on 2008 January 4.
  12. Don't fight, adapt. National Post (December 2007). Retrieved on 2007 November 18.
  13. A guide to facts and fictions about climate change. Royal Society (March 2005). Retrieved on 2007 November 18. “"However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agree on the main points"”
  14. Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Science Magazine (December 2004). Retrieved on 2008 January 4.
  15. Highlight 2007: The CTBT Verification Regime Put to the Test – The Event in the DPRK on 9 October 2006. Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (2012).
  16. Press Release June 2009: Experts Sure About Nature of the DPRK Event. Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (2012).
  17. McKirdy, Euan. "North Korea announces it conducted nuclear test", CNN, 6 January 2016.
  18. "North Korea claims successful hydrogen bomb test", CNBC, 3 September 2017.